Hand Lengths in Craps: How Impressive are Those Monster Rolls?

Hand Lengths in Craps:
How Impressive are Those Monster Rolls?

By Dan Pronovost

Dan Pronovost is the owner and president of DeepNet Technologies, makers of a wide range of gambling training products and software. Their web site are: www.HandheldBlackjack.com and www.SmartCraps.com and all products are available for free trial download. Dan is the creator of the new card counting system Speed Count, which is being taught by Henry Tamburin and Frank Scoblete in the Golden Touch Blackjack two day courses: www.GoldenTouchBlackjack.com.

This is a continuation of on-going articles on the game of craps and advantage dice control. As with prior articles, we are using new and powerful mathematical tools to analyze craps, now available in our software Smart Craps. This article refers to Pro Test and other statistical metrics described in our prior articles to date. If you haven't yet read these articles, you probably should to understand what follows:

• Craps article #1:
www.bjinsider.com/newsletter_62_dice.shtml
• Craps article #2:
www.bjinsider.com/newsletter_63_dice.shtml
• Craps article #3:
www.bjinsider.com/newsletter_64_craps.shtml

Hand Length in Craps

Traditionally, there are two justifications dice controllers use to provide evidence of their skill and ability to make money playing craps: 1) personal win history, and 2) hand length or number of rolls.

The former argument usually goes along the lines of, "I've been a dice controller for years, and I've made a lot of money doing it. I win more than I lose." While personal fiscal success or failure with dice control can be very convincing for the person involved, it unfortunately turns out to be a very bad statistical indicator, meaning it doesn't prove much by itself. As with most advantage gambling strategies, such as card counting in blackjack, the potential edge with dice control is generally pretty slim (1% to 3%), which leads to large bankroll (i.e. profit) variability. A few sessions, or even 100 hours, of slight gains does not constitute statistically convincing evidence. And in fact, the reverse can be true: a person who is indeed exercising healthy dice control may simply get unlucky and still have losing sessions. As we have discussed in our prior articles, a much more accurate and meaningful measure of skill is Pro Test, which measures axial and rotational control over the dice, based on the physics and principles of dice control. This maximizes the statistical information, yielding a good test that can prove dice control influence in as few as 100 to 500 rolls for skilled shooters.

The second common argument for dice control skill is reference to long hand length in craps. Hand length refers to the number of dice rolls a shooter has before relinquishing the dice to the next player (after sevening out on a point roll). 'Monster rolls' of 40 or more are often achieved and documented. What can these occurrences tell us statistically about dice control skill?

Measuring Hand Length Probability

To understand if some occurrence(s) of hand length are rare or not, we need to find out what a random shooter would expect for number of rolls in craps (hand length). It is possible to determine expected hand length for a random shooter via pure mathematics, but it requires very complicated techniques. Professor Don Catlin, a well known math expert on gambling, wrote an excellent treatise on this exact subject in a Casino Times article: http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/articles/1232.html

But this approach only works for random shooters, and we'll need to also test hand length for shooters with pre-supposed dice control skill. So, instead we'll use the craps simulator in Smart Craps to simulate many millions of dice throws in craps, and empirically see the resulting hand lengths. With this approach, we can test both random and non-random shooters.

We setup a craps simulation with the following parameters:

• 10,000,000 betting rounds (about 20 million dice throws).
• One pass line bet (only) per round.
• One random shooter.

The following distribution table shows some of the outcomes for hand length for a random shooter. This is a summary from a much larger table in the Smart Craps report file for the simulation (see http://www.deepnettech.com/smartcraps009.shtml for the complete report).

Hand length	Frequency	Probability for hand	Prob. hand >=
1	0	0.00%	100.00%
2	263,892	11.11%	100.00%
6	187,113	7.88%	57.60%
7	162,738	6.85%	49.72%
20	23,661	1.00%	7.28%
30	5,441	0.23%	1.66%
40	1,215	0.05%	0.38%
50	288	0.01%	0.09%

In addition, the Smart Craps report includes the following special statistics:

• Average # of throws/hand: 8.53
• 50% of hands are of throw length 6.96 or more (median value)

The median value is 6.96, which means 50% of hands will be under 6.96 rolls inclusive, and 50% will be longer than 6.96 rolls. Mathematically, we call this the median value. Interestingly, the average number of rolls is much higher than the median value. This is not surprising in this case, as hand length in craps generally follows an exponential, or lifetime, probability distribution.

We can also see that long hands are fairly rare. We would expect hands of length 30 or more only 1.66% of the time, for example. This means that if we walked up and threw 100 sessions or hands of craps, we'd expect only one or two of these to be of length 30 or more. Hands of length 50 or more are very rare (about 1 in 1000).

Note that there were no hands of length 1 (one roll), since it is not possible with the rules of craps. At worst, you will roll a point number, and then a seven (two rolls). When you roll a 7, 11, 2, 3, or 12 on the come out roll, you still get to 'hold' the dice and continue throwing.

Hand length with skilled shooters

With our new understanding of hand length probability for random shooters, we can now take a closer look at skilled dice controllers. Once again, we setup a simulation in Smart Craps as above, but we used a skilled Pro Test shooter instead. The shooter has Pro Test settings representing extremely high level of dice control skill, resulting in a potential single odds pass line edge of about 8.5% (determined from the Smart Craps edge calculator, and confirmed with the simulator). Here are the settings we used in the simulation:

• 10,000,000 betting rounds (about 20 million dice throws).
• One pass line bet (only) per round.

• One expert Pro Test shooter: # rolls: 200, Pro 1: 106 passes (0.922904% Pro Test score), Pro 2: 38 passes (0.841179% Pro Test score), Pro 3: not used.
• Optimal dice sets on come out and point rolls, as determined by the Smart Craps dice set optimizer.

The following distribution table shows some of the outcomes for hand length for a very skilled dice controller. This is a summary from a much larger table in the Smart Craps report file for the simulation (see http://www.deepnettech.com/smartcraps010.shtml for the complete report).

Hand length	Frequency	Probability for hand	Prob. hand >=
1	0	0.00%	100.00%
2	223,179	10.28%	100.00%
7	145,546	6.70%	52.35%
8	127,378	5.87%	45.64%
20	24,428	1.13%	8.77%
30	6,243	0.29%	2.21%
40	1,493	0.07%	0.55%
50	406	0.02%	0.14%

In addition, the Smart Craps report includes the following special statistics:

• Average # of throws/hand: 9.05
• 50% of hands are of throw length 7.30 or more (median value)

We can see that even with this extremely high level of dice control skill, randomness still dominates the game of craps. The median value has jumped up marginally to 7.3 rolls. The probability of a hand of length 40 or more went up from 0.38% to 0.55%. This is nearly a 45% increase over the random shooter, but in either case it's still pretty rare!

Conclusions

While monster 40+ rolls are very impressive and rare, on their own they provide very little evidence by themselves about the skill of the person achieving them. They are rare events for both random shooters, and expert level dice controllers. Also, given enough chances to hold and throw the dice, monster rolls are bound to happen. If we assume at most 100 throws an hour at a craps table, we can roughly estimate 10-12 hands an hour, regardless of the skill the shooters. Hence, a single craps pit should see a 40 or more monster roll about once a day.

So, monster rolls are going to be a daily event in any casino, regardless of the skill of the shooters.

The fact that roll length is not necessarily a good indicator of dice control skill may seem counter intuitive and even disappointing. How can it be that a known skill level, represented by a pure metric like Pro Test or the SRR, yield a positive edge for the craps player, yet their expected hand length is not all that different from random? Advantage gambling, including dice control, usually means only a slight shift in the player's favor, and such marginal edge factors mean that win/loss records and roll length, especially over short periods, are not compelling statistical evidence.

Monster-Monster rolls…

But what if a shooter claims to have a very high proportion of monster rolls (I'll call this monster-monster rolls)? Does this say anything statistically?

First, it is only human nature to see patterns where we want to, and ignore what doesn't fit. A proper assessment of hand length over time would require the player to record both when they achieve long rolls, and when they don't. Even a random shooter will occasionally have great monster rolls, as we've shown above. I mention this because we need to objectively assess how likely it is, even for a very skilled shooter, to get an extremely high proportion of monster rolls.

To test this, let's suppose an even higher level of dice control skill, what I'll call "Super Godly". These Pro Test metrics and simulation results are near super-human, and the best I've ever been provided. But it will help us test 'monster-monster' roll probability, even assuming the most amazing of skill levels. Here is the simulation I ran (see http://www.deepnettech.com/smartcraps016.shtml for the complete report):

• 10,000,000 betting rounds (about 20 million dice throws).
• One pass line bet (only) per round.

• One expert Pro Test shooter: # rolls: 412, Pro 1: 297 passes (0.00000% Pro Test score), Pro 2: not used, Pro 3: 41 (0.000161% Pro Test score).

• Optimal dice sets on come out and point rolls, as determined by the Smart Craps dice set optimizer.

• Pass line single odds potential edge: 21.371383% (with 95% confidence interval reduction on Pro Test results…see prior articles for more on this)

Now, with this godly dice control skill level, they still only have a 1.23% chance of having a 40 or higher roll (compared to 0.38% from above for a random shooter). Suppose the shooter claims that they have hit ten 40+ hands in the last 100 times they got the dice. Is this probable with their skill level? Using the same Bernoulli equation used for Pro Test (see prior articles), we can compute this probability. The probability that this godly shooter can achieve ten (or more) 40 or higher roll hands in 100 opportunities of holding the dice is… 0.0001%.

We've already assumed an incredibly high level of dice control skill, yet the likelihood that they had 10 (or more) 40+ hands in 100 sessions is one in 1 million! We're left with assuming that they have an even higher level of skill (unlikely), or that some poor hand lengths were not recorded.

Ultimately, the marginal difference in monster roll probability between random and skilled shooters makes this a weak statistic for providing evidence of dice control. Pro Test, since it statistically tests exactly the expected results from the physics of dice control, is the most accurate and useful measure of dice control skill.

Hand Lengths in Craps: A Closer Look at Monster Rolls

Hand Lengths in Craps:
A Closer Look at Monster Rolls

By Dan Pronovost

Introduction

Dan Pronovost is the owner and president of DeepNet Technologies, makers of a wide range of gambling training products and software. Their web site are: www.HandheldBlackjack.com and www.SmartCraps.com and all products are available for free trial download. Dan is the creator of the new card counting system Speed Count, which is being taught by Henry Tamburin and Frank Scoblete in the Golden Touch Blackjack two day courses: www.GoldenTouchBlackjack.com.

This is a continuation of on-going articles on the game of craps and advantage dice control. As with prior articles, we are using new and powerful mathematical tools to analyze craps, now available in our software Smart Craps. This article refers to Pro Test and other statistical metrics described in our prior articles to date. If you haven't yet read these articles, you probably should to understand what follows:

• Craps article #1:
www.bjinsider.com/newsletter_62_dice.shtml
• Craps article #2:
www.bjinsider.com/newsletter_63_dice.shtml
• Craps article #3:
www.bjinsider.com/newsletter_64_craps.shtml
• Craps article #4:
www.bjinsider.com/newsletter_65_craps.shtml

Hand Length in Craps

In June, I wrote an article that basically showed that hand length in craps (the number of rolls that you keep the dice at one time) is a very poor metric for determining if someone is influencing the dice outcomes (see www.bjinsider.com/newsletter_65_craps.shtml). We learned that while on the surface it seems pretty amazing when a shooter holds the dice for 1/2 hour or more (i.e., a long 40+ roll), these events by themselves are not good evidence of dice control. Pro Test, the tuned dice control metric used in our Smart Craps software, is by far a more accurate test and requires as few as 100 to 500 rolls to prove with statistical confidence that a person is indeed influencing dice outcomes.

But after this article was published, Frank Scoblete (a well-known dice controller and contributor to Blackjack Insider) provided me with some very detailed hand length data, asking for some analysis. Frank has already supplied me with personal Pro Test roll data in the past, and passed with the best scores I've ever seen (his roll set data represents 'godly' level of dice control skill, as I've been quoted saying a few times). Frank has meticulously kept records of his casino craps sessions, including total number of outings and exceptionally long hands.

Having analyzed hand length (# of rolls from come out to sevening out) in general for craps and found it to be a poor metric of influence, I was skeptical and tried to put him off… but he persisted and gave me all the detailed data I required. Well, having failed to find a way to ask for something he couldn't provide, I was left with no choice but to look more closely at the data.

And indeed, it was another case of bumping into the trees in the mathematical forest, as I like to say! With sufficient, complete and unbiased data, hand length can be an interesting and compelling variable to study in craps.

How to Properly Study Hand in Length in Craps

In our last article, we basically surmised the following reasons why hand length is not the best metric for determining dice influence:

• The probability of getting a 'monster roll' (50+ rolls holding the dice in craps) is pretty rare for both a random shooter and skilled shooter. By using the Smart Craps simulator, we found that a random shooter had a 0.09% chance of a 50+ roll, while a very skilled dice controller had a 0.14% chance. Even a 'godly' level of skill (like Frank's) meant a meager 0.44% chance of having a 50+ hand. When looking for good statistical measures, it's very important to make sure that the metric should show a disparity in results between the control variable and hypothesized influencing factor. While the difference above is not zero, it is not as great as a direct influence measure like Pro Test.
• Any statistical test needs to be unbiased and fair. This means establishing beforehand how many trials you will perform, recording them all, and ensuring all data is included and none is excluded. A report of "I had just had three back to back monster rolls!" is meaningless by itself. We need lots of hands, which really means months or years of data potentially.
• A claim of dice influence by passing a Pro Test in 200 to 500 rolls is easy to test and very plausible. The subject can be re-tested in a reasonable amount of time, effecting a trustworthy experiment. It is impossible to setup experimental conditions to record hundreds of hands (each containing many rolls): the best we can do is use, say, a year's worth of session data for a dice controller, and trust it was recorded properly and fairly.
• Any claim of monster rolls has to be plausible for some expected level of skill. If some claim of number of monster rolls means the odds of it happening is rare for even the most skilled shooter, then we have to be skeptical that the data is fair and unbiased.

The challenges above make statistically testing hand length challenging, but not impossible. Enter Frank's hand length data…

A Year's Worth of Casino Session Data

Initially, Frank e-mailed me the innocent question, "Here are six hand lengths: 50, 52, 55, 57, 60 and 89. Would this shooter be the same as a random shooter with these hands?"

Thinking back to my hand length article, I noted that we would need to know how many hands were rolled, ensure that the data was for an unbiased trial period, and basically needed to match all the difficult metrics I noted above.

To which Frank replied politely, "These [hands] all occurred in a single year so the 948 is like a prescribed number since the year began at one point and ended at another point." He had told me initially that he had had 948 hands in that period of six 50+ hands, but I had missed that point. Combined with the fact that these represented no more or less that one year's complete data, I felt satisfied that this met my requirements for fair and unbiased trial data. Of course, I couldn't personally validate the data, but it represented live casino sessions with many witnesses, which was good enough for me.

To study this data, I started with the same statistical technique we use with Pro Test in Smart Craps: what is the probability that a random shooter will have 6 or more 50+ monster rolls in 948 hands? We answer this using the same mathematical tools that we use for Pro Test: the Bernoulli equation (see www.bjinsider.com/newsletter_63_dice.shtml). A random shooter has 0.09% chance of a 50+ hand, so we can apply the equation to find out the probability of 6 or more such hands in 948 trials. The envelope please (drumroll)… 0.02564% is the winner!

So far so good… there is less than 1% chance that a random shooter could achieve Frank's results for number of 50+ hands in one year. But how likely or unlikely is it for Frank, as a very skilled shooter, to achieve these results? We need to confirm that it is not absurdly rare for a very skilled shooter to achieve six or more 50+ hands in 948 trials.

To test this, I used the Pro Test data Frank had previously supplied me. His results show an exceptional skill level (5% to 15% potential positive edge, depending on how he sets the dice and bets). With his data, the chance of having a single 50+ monster roll is 0.44%. Using the Bernoulli equation, we can also find out his odds of having six or more 50+ monster rolls in 948 hands: 24.18693%. This is not surprising, since the expected number would be 948 * 0.0044 = 4.2. So, it is plausible for Frank to have 6 or more 50+ monster rolls in one year.

So, there is far less than 1% chance that a random shooter could have this many (or more) monster 50+ rolls, and it's totally plausible with Frank's already confirmed skill level that it could indeed happen. Excluding the possibility of hands not being recorded or a biased sample set, we have compelling statistical evidence of dice control from hand length data!

If should be noted though that at a less 'godly' level of dice control skill, using Pro Test results from other expert skilled shooters, the probability of six or more 50+ monster rolls is only 0.24456%, which would make us skeptical of the data. The only reason we can comfortably apply our statistical test in the first place is because we had in advance sufficient Pro Test data to confirm a sufficiently high level of dice control skill to collaborate the hand length results.

Case closed on Monster Rolls: Not Guilty By Way of Plausible Explanation.

DICE CONTROL IS ALL ABOUT NUMBERS

DICE CONTROL IS ALL ABOUT NUMBERS

By Frank Scoblete

Frank Scoblete is the #1 best-selling gaming author in America. He is executive director of the Golden Touch advantage-play seminars in craps and blackjack. His websites are www.goldentouchcraps.com, www.goldentouchblackjack.com and www.scoblete.com in association with CasinoCity.com. His newest book is The Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution! co-authored with Dominator which is available in our online store at 10% discount. For more information or a free brochure, call 1-800-944-0406 or write to Frank Scoblete Enterprises, PO Box 446, Malverne, NY 11565.

Here is a string of numbers: 30, 33, 38, 56, 60, 74, 76, 89, 100 and 147. Lottery winners know the monetary power of numbers and these numbers are all very powerful because they relate to the game of craps. Let’s take a look at them.

But first.

Background: Craps is an easy game to play. You want to establish a point with two dice. These are the point numbers: 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10. Once the point is established you want to roll that number again before the 7 in order to win. If the 7 rolls you lose. There are six ways to make a 7. There are three ways to make a 4 or 10; four ways to make a 5 or 9; and five ways to make a 6 or 8. You can also place any number you want and if it rolls before the 7, you also win. Obviously the 7 is the most prolific number in craps. If you are completely new to craps, my book Beat the Craps Out of the Casinos: How to Play and Win! ($12.95) can teach you how the game is played and the best bets to make.

What a Dice Controller Tries to Do: In a random game of craps, the casino has the edge. Dice controllers try to alter the game’s probabilities with their throw in order to switch the edge over to themselves. This can be done by reducing the appearance of the 7 (it appears once every six times on average) and/or by increasing the appearance of other numbers. The dice controllers set the dice in certain ways to show certain numbers. They grip the dice lightly with three front fingers straight across the dice and the thumb in the back, placed equally on both dice. They then throw the dice softly with a gentle backspin. The dice land, lose most of their energy, hit the back wall and die – hopefully landing on certain numbers that have been preselected.

Numbers and Money: Now, the numbers in the first sentence relate to recent rolls by some skilled dice controllers. The remarkable Dominator, co-author with me of the new book Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution, had rolls of 30, 33, and 38 back-to-back-to-back. He also had a 56-roll hand where the seven appeared only once – on his 57th roll. The 74-roll hand was by another great shooter, Howard "Rock ‘N Roller" who had an amazing run of five consecutive days of hour or longer rolls, finishing up with an hour and a half and those 74 numbers.

My contributions were a 60 and an 89-roll hand within a month of each other, in addition to five other 50 or better hands.

But the big numbers of 76, 100 and 147 were rolled by the Captain, the 84-year old Atlantic City legend, just months apart from each other. These are monstrous rolls. The 147-roll hand (recounted at www.goldentouchcraps.com/captainrolls147.shtml) could very well be a modern record for total numbers actually rolled. That roll lasted two hours and 18 minutes and I had the privilege of seeing it.

Now what kind of money is involved in such epic rolls? Simply stated, even low rollers make a lot of money during such epic rolls. Once a shooter’s hand gets over 50 numbers, most craps bettors have started to press bets. When the roll gets to 70 or more – the house will be refilling all the chips on the table, even their highest denominations.

But most dice controllers don’t have to hit such big hands to reverse the house edge. Indeed, even small changes in the normal dice probabilities will give the dice controller an edge over the house on some bets. Epic rolls are fun to write about, witness and make money from but most dice controllers are content to grind out wins over the casinos with somewhat smaller hands.

Those interested in reading more about dice control and seeing 94 great pictures of each and every step of the process, I recommend you get a copy of Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution which is available in the Blackjack Insider Store at 10% discount (click here) or by calling our toll free number 1-888-353-3234.

CRAPS TOURNAMENT STRATEGIES FOR BEGINNERS

CRAPS TOURNAMENT STRATEGIES FOR BEGINNERS

By Walker

Walker lives in the Southeast and began playing blackjack and other advantage games in 1999. He frequently plays in Online blackjack tournaments (especially www.Bet21.com), and in land-based casinos throughout the US. He is considered one of the premier tournament players in the country. Walker also recently won a craps tournament using the techniques outlined in this article.

Dice tournaments are a lot of fun to play and can offer the skilled player a nice edge over the average opponent. Some of the reasons are:

• Frequently there are 12-16 players per table and most of them simply can�t keep up with the bankrolls.
• Generally the participants are "craps" players and play tournaments as if they are at a gaming table.
• And more importantly, the result of each roll in craps is the same for everyone at the table.

As you will see shortly, point 3 above is an important aspect of the game. For the purpose of the information that follows, I�ll assume that you know the basics of how the game is played and the payoffs for each bet.

Tournament Formats

There are two primary tournament formats with some variations: accumulation and elimination.

Accumulation Tournament

As the name implies, in this format you are competing against all the tournament players and your goal is simply to try to win as many chips as necessary in order to advance. For example, let�s assume 72 players are entered into the event, with six tables of twelve players, and the best 14 scores advance to the final. Your goal is obvious - to end up with at least the fourteenth greatest bankroll compared to all the other tournament players. The issue is how to become one of the 14.

Your first goal is to determine how many chips you will need to win to get you in the top 14 (i.e., what should be your bankroll target). Since making this determination is not an exact science, I�d suggest that you try to play in the latest round possible so that you will know the player scores from the early rounds. This will give you a good idea of what you will need to win to advance. For our example, let�s assume that each participant begins with $1,000 bankroll and $2,500 is the most likely bankroll target that will get you in the top 14. Now you have a target and simply need a strategy to achieve it.

The strategy to increase your bankroll from $1,000 to $2,500 comes down to a personal preference although I�ll summarize some playing and betting techniques that I use. The key, however, is to risk your entire bankroll until you reach your target bankroll.

In the accumulation format, I generally choose one of two methods to achieve a benchmark target. One way is to wager on pass line and all of the point numbers (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10) in a manner that will give you a similar amount won when each number hits (example to follow). If you choose this strategy you can determine ahead of time the amount to wager on each number. Initially, your bets don�t have to be precise because you can make adjustments as you collect your winnings. However, some casinos insist on the bets being "proper," meaning a place bet on the 6 and 8 has to be in increments of $6. If that�s the case, you may want to structure your initial bet from your $1,000 bankroll in the following way:

$20 on pass line with odds

$240 on the 6 and 8

$150 on the 5 and 9 and

$100 on the 4 and 10.

Note: Do not place the point number since it is covered by your pass line bet.

The bets on the six and eight are over-weighted at this point (meaning you are winning slightly more when these bets win compared to what you win on the other point numbers), but this can be corrected after your first collection by adding more chips to the other four numbers. Bet the odds on the pass line with an amount equal to what the place bet would have been. For example, the point is 9. Take $150 initial odds and adjust as money is collected on the place bets. In other words, just treat the odds bet as one of the place bets. Always remember that after each collection, add to your bets until you achieve your $2,500 target, or you bust out trying.

While I have used the above strategy with success, I generally prefer to use the following strategy because most of your opponents will be "craps players" and making similar bets as above (i.e., while you are collecting your winning bets, they are as well). So my preferred method of betting is to wager the don�t pass laying maximum odds.

Once the point is established, you are the favorite to win your don�t bet plus odds since the 7 can be rolled more ways than any point number. When you win, most of your opponents betting the opposite pass line will lose, resulting in a favorable swing. With this method of betting you must be "all in" and win two decisions since you will be collecting less money than you are risking (i.e., when you lay odds, you bet more to win less because you have the edge). Notice that if both consecutive points are four or ten, you will still be shy of your goal. If both points are 5, 6, 8, or 9, you will have surpassed your goal. Also, the maximum bet may prohibit you from making the second all-in bet on the don�t pass line. Use your imagination here to get the rest of your money working for you. A combination of these two methods may also be used if desired. An example would be that you�ve successfully won both don�t bets, but are a little shy of your target number because both points were either 4 or 10 (see example below). It makes little sense at this point to risk the whole bankroll. You may now use a few of your chips for place bets to make up the deficit.

For example, suppose the rules allow up to 10X odds (though the exact amount doesn't matter). From our $1,000 bankroll, we bet $100 on the Don't Pass line and lay $900. We win the bet. Now our new bankroll is $1000 + $100 (flat) + $450 (odds) = $1,550. For the next point, we again bet $100 on the Don't Pass line, then lay the remaining $1450. Assume we win again, therefore, our new bankroll is $1550 + $100 (flat) + $725 (odds) = $2375. This is slightly shy of our target number. This problem shouldn't occur often, but if it does and time allows, a small don't bet will make up the difference. If not, make some place bets.

Elimination Tournaments

The more common format is the elimination tournament, which has two versions. One has a defined number of rolls and the round is over, and the other ends on a decision (point made or seven out). In the latter, after a specified time frame, a "last decision" is announced. In both formats, a pre-determined number of players advance from the table.

It should be apparent that the elimination format offers the skilled player a larger advantage than the accumulation format. My recommendation for how to play and bet in elimination tournaments is as follows.

Your betting should be conservative in the early part of the round while you monitor your opponent bankrolls. If you need to make "catch up" bets, the number of rolls remaining will determine when you need to risk your bankroll to do so. However, with only 25 or fewer rolls of the dice per round, you can�t afford to wait too long before making your move. In the case of a decision tournament, you can be much more patient and often not make a move until the last decision is announced.

Tournaments Decided by a Specific Number of Rolls

Once you�ve decided you must risk part, or all, of your bankroll, the number of rolls remaining will dictate your choice of bets. With 15 or more rolls remaining, you may choose to make the necessary wager on, or against, the point. However, with only a few rolls remaining, the above is not a viable option since there may not be a decision before the round is over. In this case, you must make wagers that allow you to collect money on the majority of dice combinations, or as many as possible that will benefit you and not your opponents.

As an example, if the player(s) you are trying to catch have place bets on the 6 and 8, betting on these numbers may do you little good. In this case take the outside numbers (4, 5, 9, 10). The best component of dice tournaments is that there is nearly always a way for you to advance on the last roll. Your goal is to find the bets that will give you the most opportunity.

Tournaments Decided by a Final Decision

Tournaments that end with a decision are played much the same way except that you generally do not have to risk your bankroll until much later. This works in your favor as some of your opponents may bust out and be eliminated before the last decision is announced which makes your task less complicated.

Generally, a countdown of bankrolls will be made just before the final "come out" roll. Now you know exactly where you stand and can act accordingly. If you already have enough money to advance, simply make the same bets as your opponents (i.e., correlate with the opponents that are trying to catch you). As I mentioned earlier, because of the common outcome in craps, it will be difficult or impossible for your opponents to catch you when employing this strategy. If you do not have enough bankroll to advance, don�t panic. You will probably still be the mathematical favorite to advance if your opponents are pass line bettors, and no worse than a 2:1 underdog if they are don�t pass bettors.

To illustrate, let us assume that your opponents are betting on the pass line. Your max bet on the don�t pass line will make you the favorite to advance even if you are a max bet behind (the exact ratio will depend on the point to be made and how much your opponent bets). Let�s say you have $950 left from your original starting bank of $1,000. The leader has $1,700 and the come out roll is a four. Your opponent bets his lead on the point, keeping $1000 plus a chip in the rack. You will make a don�t pass line bet and "lay" your remaining bankroll as odds. You are now a two to one favorite to advance (6 ways to make a seven versus 3 ways to make a four). In this example, a "seven out" will leave you with approximately $1,450 and your opponent with just over $1,000. You may ask why the leader would give you such an opportunity? The answer is that if several players are advancing, he is making approximately the correct bet. That is, he is the leader and correlating with his opponents. If the point is made, he advances. If the point is lost, he still advances.

This last sentence reminds me to reiterate what advantage craps tournaments offer the skilled player. In the previous example, the leader was a lock to advance regardless of the decision. This is a relatively common situation if attrition has damaged the other bankrolls. You need only copy their bets to advance. If you are behind, be creative. In the previous example, there is a better way to use some of your chips. Since the seven out will give you more than enough chips, use the excess chips for place bets. If you can collect enough from these bets, you may actually overcome your deficit and be able to switch to the pass line (correlating with the competition) and advance regardless of the outcome.

To conclude, simply give yourself the best chance by finding bets that gives you the most possibilities. The "field" has 16 winning combinations and is a one-roll bet. Placing all of the numbers will give you 24 winning combinations and remains in action until called off, or seven rolls. Given a choice, use the place bets. And finally, you will sometimes be overwhelmed on the last roll and simply not be sure of your standing or what action to take. In this case, it is better to have your money in action. When faced with this dilemma, make place bets on all of the numbers if collecting money on the final roll will advance you to the next table. If this is in doubt, condense to the "inside" numbers. If that isn�t sufficient, condense further, making bets on the 5, 6, and 8 (non-field numbers).

Finally, keep this in mind. You have probably made a mistake if you do not have your money in action on the final roll. So don�t be shy and if need be risk your entire bankroll until you reach your target bankroll.

Learning Dice Control

Learning Dice Control

by Frank Scoblete

Frank Scoblete, #1 best-selling gaming author, is director of Golden Touch advantage-play seminars in dice-control. Websites: www.goldentouchcraps.com and www.scoblete.com. Recent books: Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution! and Golden Touch Blackjack Revolution! To order Frank's products or free brochure, call 1-800-944-0406.

This newsletter goes primarily to blackjack card counters and basic strategy players. That�s fine. That�s great. I love blackjack too and the newest and easiest method for beating the game is in my new book Golden Touch Blackjack Revolution! This method was created by skinny Dan Pronovost of Canada, a country somewhere above the United States on a map.

Blackjack is the most popular game in the casinos and has been for over 40 years since Ed Thorp published his seminal work Beat the Dealer. All other casino games are thought to be unbeatable, which actually isn�t quite true.

Take craps for instance. Labeled an independent trial game, craps was thought to be unbeatable because it was merely a�well�dice throw. However, the legendary Captain of Atlantic City realized in the late 1970s that the casino version of the game of craps could be beaten by using a controlled throw (he called this throw a "rhythmic roll"). The Captain won eight figures at craps, as did one of his Crew members, Jimmy P.

Can controlled shooting actually work? Absolutely! Just ask the Mississippi casinos which have banned both me and my partner, Dominator because of our craps play. Yes, craps is beatable by using the Golden Touch controlled throw.

Here are certain steps in a controlled throw:

1. You must set the dice so you can see certain faces. The best set for beginners and intermediate players is called the "Hardway" set which shows 5:5, 4:4, 3:3, and 2:2, with the 6-spot and the 1-spot on the sides. This set helps reduce the appearance of the seven.
2. You must grip the dice with your fingers lightly so they can be released with very little drag.
3. Your throw should come from a smooth, pendulum swing.
4. You should have a gentle back spin on the dice that will break them once they hit the table
5. With a little forward trajectory, the dice will hit the back wall and die.

If you follow these steps, you can obtain an edge over the game of craps. Sounds easy right? Unfortunately, dice control is a far harder skill to learn than is card counting. Once you learn all the steps, you have to practice almost daily and it takes a good six months before you actually start to see your edge developing.

Many players who obtain an edge still lose because of their betting styles. The "see a horn, bet a horn" crowd can�t win because bets such as the horn come in with edges in the double digits.

Sadly most craps players are gamblers, not advantage players, so even with a modicum of skill they are ultimately losers.

My estimate is that 10 to 20 percent of those who pursue dice control actually win in the casinos. As Christ said, "Many are called, but few are chosen."

Editor�s Note: If you are interested in learning more about dice control, I highly recommend the book, Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution. It is available at 10% discount in our store. Click here for details.

DICE CONTROL AND MY HUMBLE GAMBLING CONTRIBUTIONS

DICE CONTROL AND MY HUMBLE GAMBLING CONTRIBUTIONS

By Frank Scoblete

Frank Scoblete is the #1 best-selling gaming author in America. Frank�s books and tapes have sold over two million copies. His latest book is The Virgin Kiss and Other Adventures. His newest DVD is Golden Touch: Beat Craps Using a Controlled Throw! For a free brochure call: 1-800-944-0406 or write: Paone Press, Box 446, Malverne, NY 11565. His websites are www.goldentouchblackjack.com, www.goldentouchcraps.com and www.scoblete.com.

Editor�s Note: I�ve known Frank Scoblete for many years. We were speakers at many gambling conferences and jamborees, and we also played and dined in Las Vegas. Not too many folks know that Frank paid for his son�s college tuition from his winnings at blackjack (how�s that for playing under pressure). He was, and still is, a very good blackjack player, who walks the talk after spending countless hours, weeks, days, and even months in casinos, beating them at their own game. Frank is also a very gifted writer and speaker. If you read any of his countless books, or been to one of his seminars, you know exactly what I mean (if you haven�t, you don�t know what you are missing). Frank also taught me a thing or two about dice control (skeptic as I was, he made me a believer). Everything that Frank does, he does first-class. He is also probably the most knowledgeable person alive about all the casino games. He has to be after writing books on slots, video poker, roulette, Spanish 21, Let it Ride, Three Card Poker, blackjack, craps, and a ton more games. He�s also got guts. Would you sit down and write a book about your life? I didn�t think so, but Frank did, and it�s a great book ( The Virgin Kiss and Other Adventures). I�m fortunate that Frank has been with the BJI almost since its inception. His wit and comments about the casino scene and blackjack in AC has been right on the money. Get read to read another witty article by "King Scobe," as he discusses the Godfather of dice control, and the many, humbling contributions that he has made to casino gambling.

Happy centennial BJ Insider! One hundred issues, wow! Your achievement is enviable, that�s for sure.

Ubber editor Henry Tamburin has asked me to give a rundown of some of the things I�ve actually done in gambling, and also to tell you what a lasting contribution I have made in the field of craps and dice control. Now, other gambling writers have also contributed knowledge in the area of craps and dice control too � I am not alone; for example, my partner Dominator, perhaps the best dice controller in the world today, has helped to refine the technique so we can handle any type of craps table in the casinos.

But there are two people who did it all from creation to execution � and I just reported on their findings and achievements, and helped push the development of their techniques.

I wish I could take credit for the wonderful advantage-play method of dice control � I wish I had discovered it. But that credit goes to the Captain, my mentor, who is now 86 years old. He�s the one who first came up with the way to beat the modern casino craps table with (what he called) a rhythmic roll. His late friend, the woman known as "The Arm" was the greatest dice controller I ever saw, bar none.

Like the great observers in science (think Charles Darwin), the Captain realized that if one could manipulate the dice it just might be possible to change the probabilities of the game even with those foam rubber pyramids at the end of the table that you had to hit with the dice. He developed a wonderful throw � the throw we teach in my Golden Touch Dice Control classes � and with this throw and smart betting practices, he won eight figures in his career.

Of course he did have help � an amazing woman "The Arm." She was the Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Joe DiMaggio of dice control. But the Captain was, and is, THE MAN, because he put it all together.

I think I have made some pretty big contributions to craps and dice control, yes (oh, so I am not that humble), but I have also done some interesting things in other gambling areas. Here are my Lucky 7 achievements as I praise myself � if a book is associated with any of these I�ve put it in parenthesis (since I always try to promote my books, wink, wink).

1. Dice control (Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution!)
2. The 5-Count (Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution!)
3. Bringing skinny Dan Pronovost�s epic contribution to blackjack (Speed Count) to a massive audience through my book Golden Touch Blackjack Revolution!
4. Creation of the "Fat Fingers" advantage-play method in blackjack. (Just known by three other players, including someone from this newsletter. I�m keeping this one to myself as no casino has ever thought of it before. Mum may always be the word on this one.)
5. My wife, the beautiful A.P., and I were a great blackjack team in the late 1980s and through the 1990s. Had many amazing (and scary) adventures, some of which I have written about. A.P. was a great card counter and I blame her for the fact that I gained 70 pounds during my playing career! I couldn�t resist all those gourmet dinners.
6. I�ve been banned for craps in one whole state and in several Vegas joints � actually had one casino manager jump across a craps table to ban me (I think the guy was foaming at the mouth) � and I have also had many interesting run ins with some of the nuttier casino employees: a gun placed in my back in downtown Las Vegas at a blackjack table by a monstrously large steroidal security guard; a pit boss following me down the strip from a casino (okay, okay, so my spread was one to 60!) which ended with me ready to punch his face in; two whores trying to break down the door to my room at Treasure Island until they realized they had the wrong room. They were scary looking creatures and I always wondered what happened to the guy who hired them. Add another hundred or so adventures to these three.
7. I guess selling over two million copies of my various books, VHS and audio tapes, and DVDs is a good achievement. I write about all the games, of course, and also about all aspects of the casino world and my adventures.

So to all the readers of BJ Insider � let�s make it to 200 issues! I am privileged to be in the company of such fine gambling writers.

Note: You can read Frank�s description of watching the Captain roll 147 times in an Atlantic City before sevening out (a world record, by the way), as well as other interesting (and hilarious) stories about Frank�s life inside and outside the casino, by reading his latest book, The Virgin Kiss and Other Adventures. It�s available at a discount in our BJI store. Click here.

DICE CONTROL 101-BASICS OF DICE CONTROL

DICE CONTROL 101

BASICS OF DICE CONTROL

by Jerry "Stickman"

Jerry "Stickman" is an expert in craps, blackjack, video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines. The "Stickman" is also a certified instructor for Golden Touch Craps and Golden Touch Blackjack. His current book, " Specific Slots Machines That Give the Players the Edge!" provides mathematically proven advantages over the house on some slots and it is available in our store. You can contact Jerry "Stickman" at stickman@goldentouchcraps.com.

Editor�s Note: I have played craps with Jerry many times and his throw is a thing of beauty. At one memorable session, he threw so many consecutive 6s that I lost track of the number. He is a master at dice control so pay close attention to what he has to say about it.

Of all the games in a casino, Craps is the only one where the player is handed the means to make money � the dice. In effect the casino says, "Here, take the dice and try to beat me." It is the numbers that a player throws which ultimately determines whether he wins or loses. As long as a few basic rules are followed, the dice shooter can throw the dice any way he likes.

In this series of articles for the BJI, I will examine and explain the fundamentals of dice control (no experience required). Throwing dice is very similar to pitching a baseball in that it is a physical event subject to the laws of physics. Gravity and Newton�s laws of motion are all in play in a controlled dice throw.

Ideally, we would like to be able to glue the two dice together. That way they would only land on the numbers on the exposed faces of the dice. As long as the numbers we wanted were on the exposed faces, we would win. Unfortunately for players, the casinos frown on gluing the dice together � or putting any foreign substance on them for that matter � so the dice controller must do something else to try to create the same outcome as gluing the dice together.

When the shooter launches the dice in the air towards the back wall, the dice have six degrees of movement. By putting backspin on the dice, three of these degrees of movement can be eliminated. By eliminating half of the degrees of movement, the shooter improves the chances of making money.

Putting a backspin on the dice does several things. It keeps the dice together and prevents them from randomizing in the air, and it also acts as a brake when the dice hit the table layout. We want the dice to hit flat in order to dissipate as much energy as possible before they gently hit the back wall and die.

The shooter can control everything up to the point where he releases the dice. The stance, dice set, grip and delivery are all within the shooters control. These are the things the dice controller must get down perfectly in order to be successful, because once the dice leave the hand, they are influenced by air currents, gravity, imperfections in the table surface, and the rubber pyramids on the back wall. Each of these influences chip away at the perfect throw. Fortunately, you do not need to be perfect to have an advantage at craps any more than you need to throw a strike with every pitch in baseball to get the batter out.

The techniques that will be presented in this series will give you the best chance to have your dice throw start perfectly and end so that you will have an edge over the casino when the dice come to rest. Nowhere do these techniques contradict any of the normal rules for craps. The casino says the dice must hit the back wall, and these techniques will cause the dice to hit the back wall. In fact, if you don�t hit the back wall with both dice, you will not have an advantage.

Future installments of Dice Control 101 will include the following topics:

• Where to Stand

Would you rather pitch from the pitcher�s mound or from second base? How about putting � a five-foot putt or a 20-foot putt? Obviously, the shorter the distance from start to finish the better the results. The same holds true for dice control.

• The Stance

Why do baseball players take a certain stance at the plate? How about golfers? The same holds true for the dice controller. Certain stances are better than others for consistency and long term results at the table.

• Scanning the Dice

Have you ever watched pitchers prepare for a pitch, or golfers prepare for a putt? That same concentration and focus is required to help gain an edge in craps.

• The Dice Sets

A pitcher will set a baseball a certain way to throw a curveball and a different way for a fast ball. Different dice sets are used for different purposes at the craps table.

• The Grip

Just as a pitcher grips the baseball a certain way for best results, the dice grip is crucial to getting an edge over the casino in craps

• The Delivery

Pitchers in baseball, golfers, and even bowlers all have a very specific delivery that helps ensure optimum results in their respective games. The delivery of the dice is no less important for an advantage over the house in craps.

• Betting

Let�s say you have practiced and practiced, and have learned all the basics of dice control and have a bonafide three percent edge over the house. Will this edge make you a winner in the game of craps? Maybe, and maybe not � it all depends on how you bet.

• Discipline

As with any endeavor where risk is involved, discipline is a key factor to long term success. In casino gambling, having the discipline to only play when you have an advantage, to only place the best bets, and to play within your means, will make you a long term winner.

• Money management

To be a successful dice controller you cannot be sweating the money you have on the layout. The best way to do this is to have a separate gambling fund. This should be a separate bank account that is only used for gambling. Until you have this account you are setting yourself up for failure.

As stated earlier, until you release the dice, you have control. Learning the techniques mentioned and practicing them until you perform them nearly perfectly, will put you well on your way to having an advantage. The time spent on stance, dice sets, grip, and delivery will ultimately determine how good you are going to be. You must learn the elements of dice control to have any chance at beating the game.

Jerry "Stickman"

Editor�s note: Stay tuned for more tips on how to become a dice controller in future issues of BJI. Can�t wait? The "bible" on dice control is the Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution book.